Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.838976 0.983306 1.144956 1.339443 1.567162 1.825452 2.140830
2024-10-20 0.580503 0.761692 0.988460 1.293269 1.692693 2.198961 2.890633
2024-10-27 0.443424 0.630547 0.884015 1.252754 1.776397 2.494918 3.558789
2024-11-03 0.371432 0.563776 0.841577 1.272533 1.925846 2.882027 4.393612
2024-11-10 0.336496 0.540362 0.851581 1.361975 2.180716 3.447830 5.567965
2024-11-17 0.299269 0.505325 0.835808 1.405335 2.366191 3.929219 6.680537
2024-11-24 0.262979 0.464798 0.803351 1.413722 2.491890 4.327195 7.710716
2024-12-01 0.230228 0.424411 0.763923 1.402056 2.578080 4.665636 8.682260
2024-12-08 0.203860 0.390879 0.730759 1.394951 2.668507 5.019568 9.727883
2024-12-15 0.184421 0.366967 0.711037 1.408584 2.797092 5.456987 10.989023
2024-12-22 0.160402 0.330535 0.662430 1.359042 2.795556 5.645274 11.787696
2024-12-29 0.155221 0.330817 0.684906 1.453369 3.092951 6.456964 13.962267
2025-01-05 0.135915 0.299590 0.640745 1.406309 3.096304 6.682611 14.964830
2025-01-12 0.119173 0.271476 0.599372 1.359646 3.094855 6.900609 15.991821
2025-01-19 0.105095 0.247104 0.562495 1.317154 3.095686 7.122277 17.059315
2025-01-26 0.097460 0.236287 0.554055 1.337963 3.243814 7.693638 19.027810
2025-02-02 0.095456 0.238443 0.575483 1.432029 3.578581 8.743126 22.309567
2025-02-09 0.090429 0.232475 0.576895 1.477631 3.801844 9.557973 25.134617
2025-02-16 0.083768 0.221408 0.564372 1.486452 3.933809 10.166642 27.524795
2025-02-23 0.076717 0.208274 0.544830 1.474183 4.008999 10.641243 29.631955
2025-03-02 0.070633 0.196822 0.528026 1.466711 4.095866 11.158290 31.935780
2025-03-09 0.066117 0.188993 0.519680 1.481048 4.244559 11.861330 34.871305
2025-03-16 0.059287 0.173690 0.489116 1.428945 4.199194 12.026810 36.287574